Editorial Health Warnings:
- This is a very brief, unstructured, synopsis of the key points relating to Social Security
- The budget is a draft budget, subject to approval by Holyrood Committees & Parliament
- The full document is 283 pages (very) long. Spending plans may be included in different “portfolios” (e.g. voluntary organisations that are funded centrally or via local government)
- The writer is not an accountant, economist or any other kind of fiscal expert!
Official Health Warnings:
- Unusually, the UK Budget will be announced after this draft budget, on 11 March. Due to the complex “grant sharing formula” for UK/Scotland (“Barnett”), the Scottish budget may change
- Brexit can impact the economy and public spending;
- The “fiscal risk” (uncertainty) of actual Scot Gov spending & actual Scot Gov income via taxation and grant adjustments is higher this year than previously (see below).
Brief Overview:
Note: £1b = 1,000,000,000 (a thousand million); £1m = 1,000,000 (a mere million)
Within a total budget of £50b:
Health & Social Care = £15b
Local Government = £11.3b plus maximum 3% increase in local Council Tax
Social Security = £3.7b (most of which is still paid via the UK DWP, see below);
Scottish Taxation: no change in rates and “higher earners allowances” frozen, meaning that 56% pay less than in rUK and the wealthier 44% pay more. (There is some uncertainty re actual income from Scottish taxation)
Social Security (Complex & confusing):
£3.7b Scottish social security budget will be mostly still paid to claimants via DWP in 2020-21
First “big” benefit transfer to Scottish control is new claims for child DLA in Summer 2020, estimated at 16,000 awards totalling £3m
Extra £10 p.w. per child under 6 in low income families will be introduced in Xmas 2020, estimated total £21m
The “Demand led” nature of transferred DWP benefits brings greater financial risk/uncertainty;
The Welfare Fund is (finally)being increased from 2013-14 levels, rising by £2.5m to £35.5m (a small nod to our SUWN campaign…)
Money for Discretionary Housing Payments is being increased from £63.2m to £71.8m, plus a further £2m for “care leavers”. (We campaigned for an increase in these payments too.)
Further details of the many Social Security developments (and a link to the Scottish Budget) can be found here
Thanks to Ian Davidson for this analysis
The “Health & Social Care” £15b is actually mainly health (bizarrely it is the “health & sport” portfolio; there is further money for social care but I am unclear whether this is a separate item or part of the local govt figure! This illustrates how difficult it is to understand the budget as presented. (Ian)
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Editorial correction 2: The Council Tax rise, may in fact be up to 5%; Midlothian Council have just set a CT increase of 5%; whether this will result in any reduction in grant from Scot Gov; don’t know!
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Editorial Update 3: Both Glasgow and Edinburgh Councils planning CT rises of just under 5% so this may be replicated by other Councils. If you are entitled to Council Tax Reduction, not a problem. If not, then a significant extra household cost (always worth checking entitlement to CTR especially when you receive your CT 20-21 notification). General wrangling continues between parties at Holyrood; the UK Budget remains scheduled for 11.3.20.
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Editorial Update 4 (Final): https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Social_Security/General%20Documents/20200221_Convener_to_CabSecSSOP_budget.pdf
The Holyrood SSC considered the draft SSS Budget last week but has literally “run out of time” to make any comments – see very short letter above. Woeful!
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